Estimation of 
Lifetime and Age Conditional Probabilities of Developing Cancer of Reproductive Organs in Women of Daegu Metropolitan Area

Keimyung Medical Journal 2003;22(Suppl):50-65.

Estimation of Lifetime and Age Conditional Probabilities of Developing Cancer of Reproductive Organs in Women of Daegu Metropolitan Area

대구지역 여성에서의 생식기 암으로 진단 받을 평생 확률 및 연령조건부 확률의 추정

김성한; 이충원; 박준철; 윤성도

Abstract

This study was undertaken to estimate lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer of all sites and reproductive sites in females for the purpose of health education of the general public as well as clinical cancer counselling. Using the DEVCAN developed by the US National Cancer Institute; those probabilities were calculated based on the incidence rates in Daegu Metropolitan Area during 1997-1998; provided by the Daegu Cancer Registry; and mortality rates during the same period; provided by the National Statistical Office. Lifetime risks of developing cancer were estimated to be 20.9% in all sites; 3.28% in reproductive sites; 2.3% in cervix uteri; 0.3% corpus uteri & uterus unspecified; 0.6% in ovary; and 0.2% in other reproductive sites. Age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer of all sites from 30 to 60 years of age and from 60 to 85 years of age were 6.52% and 14.64% respectively; and those for reproductive cancer were 1.61% and 1.65%; respectively. Some of these probabilities were unstable; especially in older age groups. However; these probabilities should be interpreted cautiously; because of surgery rates of the cancer sites and change of risk factors in the population.

Key Words: Age-conditional risk, Developing cancer, Lifetime risks